Long-time readers of this blog (all five of you, you know who you are) will recall that I made a fair number of predictions about a year ago how e-readers might save B2B publishing. (This takes on even more importance in light of the fact that the current economic model for B2B media is unsustainable, in the view of at least some experts. I think this varies by market, but there's more than a grain of truth here.)
In my Feb 2009 post, I predicted that only Apple is positioned for success in this regard. I still believe this to be true, even though there was no mention of a platform for magazine publishing during the 90-minute January 2010 special event in which the iPad was announced.
Also, a quick detour. My ears are still ringing from the tremendous cry that rang out across the blogosphere about how the iPad disappoints. I have to say I completely disagree with these naysayers, and believe that the iPad looks to be an amazing piece of technology at an amazing price. What we're hearing and seeing in the blogosphere is the first of three phases of reaction of an Apple new-category roll-out as pointed out by New York Times tech columnist and blogger David Pogue. Pogue nails it, in my view, and I agree with his prediction that when the device is released, Apple will be doing all it can to keep up with demand.
So let's take a look at my predictions from a year ago, and assess, given what we know about iPad, how and whether iPad fills the bill to be a potential savior of magazine publishing.
Prediction #1: We need much bigger screens
I had called for a 8.5 x 11 inch screen, the size of a piece of paper, and in living color. We got a 9.7-inch (measured diagonally, presumably) high color, high contrast display. Pretty close! A tad smaller than a piece of paper, but a good deal bigger than a Kindle. I haven't looked at one yet, of course, but if it's anything like the display on an iPhone, it will be a pleasure reading. Apple designed this device for consuming Web content. You can bet the display was designed for reading. I further called for over 90% of the surface area of the device be given over to reading, and it looks like that's what we got. No extraneous keyboards, buttons, etc. In my post a year ago, I had said that a 7 or 8 inch screen isn't big enough for a magazine page. Apple's iPad is bigger, but until I get one, I won't know whether it's big enough. But it's a darn sight closer than anything else I've seen. So:
iPad: yes
Prediction #2: We need better software.
The New York Times demonstrated an app they wrote for iPad. This shows the promise of reading publications on the iPad, but it was too newspaper-y. A great vision for what can be accomplished with magazines is what Sports Illustrated is showing on its Tablet Demo. Pretty advanced stuff, and not sure traditional B2B publishers capable of this level of sophistication. The problem is, each publisher shouldn't have to design their own app. There should be one app that connects to a corpus of magazines. So:
iPad: no
Prediction #3: We need a page-description language specific to high-fidelity publishing.
As I say above, each publisher shouldn't have to invent their own, in the form of an App. Apple should release a language, or collaborate with Adobe in the creation of one, or build on an existing standard. Apple should release this standard as an open specification so other companies can build software composition and layout tools to output in this format.
iPad: no
Apple got this right twice: The latest WiFi connectivity is built in, and for $139 more, you get 3G networking via the AT&T cell network, at $15 per month for up to 250 MB/mo ($30 for unlimited). I would say:
iPad: yes!
Prediction #5: Devices must be vertically integrated into a click-to-purchase content store
Apple demonstrated this with iBookstore, and it doesn't take any imagination at all to envision an iMagazine store. All the pieces are there. But alas, it was noticeably absent at the January presentation.
iPad: no
Prediction #6: We need a new ad model to track performance
Nothing here yet.
iPad: no
Bottom line
It's my belief that the iPad presents an ideal platform to save the magazine publishing field. But there's a lot to do yet. We need to solve #2, #3, #5 and #6, and collaborate with Apple on the creation of iMagazines.
It's my belief that the iPad presents an ideal platform to save the magazine publishing field. But there's a lot to do yet. We need to solve #2, #3, #5 and #6, and collaborate with Apple on the creation of iMagazines.
There's one fly in the ointment, however, where B2B is concerned. Apple goes where the money is. For apps, it takes a small fraction of the revenues generated by 3rd party developers. Same thing for music, TV and movies sold through iTunes. Same thing for books sold through iBookstore. For consumer magazines, you can bet the same will hold for iMagazines.
So why on earth would Apple cooperate with B2B publishers, whose content is free (to qualified readers)? That's a good question. For the answer, I prefer to look at how Apple embraced independent and free podcast content producers on iTune store. Apple makes zero money on Podcasts, but it devotes resources to housing and conveying podcast content to users, because it recognizes the more content it has (regardless of whether it's free or paid), the more it creates a critical mass to entice users to buy the iPad and buy into the iPad economy.
I see no reason why B2B media can't play a similar role when it comes to a iMagazines-style store.
I see no reason why B2B media can't play a similar role when it comes to a iMagazines-style store.
I think there's a land grab ahead for B2B media, and I say that we need, for once, to get ahead of the curve, as an industry, not as a publisher here or publisher there. We need to work with Apple with one voice to construct a model that will bridge B2B media to this new platform, so we can start hammering out the tough questions on how we acquire new readers (potentially much cheaper), and how we deliver content (definitely much cheaper), and how we measure performance. We don't want the answers to these questions to be determined by chance, or determined solely by consumer magazine publishers. B2B media has its own unique needs and constraints, and I think there's enough room under the Apple iPad tent to accommodate them. But we should at least be having the conversation--with Apple and with one another.
